It Can’t Happen Here?


By John Davis

Tsunamis can be viewed from space or high ground. But the worst possible viewing location is on the beach with no plan of escape. Only after the Indian Ocean wave is the world paying attention again, and hopefully learning.


Native coastal peoples pass down legends from father to son and mother to daughter about great waves. But our contemporary society views them as more of a Hollywood undertaking than reality.

In Venice and Marina del Rey we are not Tsunami Ready. The City and County of Los Angeles downplay the risk by hoping only a three-foot wave may come. Even a three footer can travel inland up to three-quarters of a mile. You could not stand in that fast wave full of debris. And if that wave happened at a very high tide in conjunction with an El Niño year the damage could be far worse.

In fact, the risk of much bigger waves are presented by the Malibu, Palos Verdes, Redondo, Santa Barbara, and San Clemente faults, to name but a few. These are the most dangerous for Venice and MDR. While the U.S. does have the world’s best tsunami early warning system, it is only geared to give us hours of advance warning from seismic waves generated further away. Locally generated tsunamis can arrive in mere minutes. The only warning will be the quake itself.

It has happened here!

• On Dec. 21, 1812 an earthquake offshore of Santa Barbara spawned the largest recorded tsunami waves ever in California. The 8.3 quake produced five destructive seismic waves. One wave even reached the Santa Barbara Presidio after ripping through everything else in its path. The U.S. Geological survey gauged the highest wave at 48-50 ft above sea level.

• In 1964 the Alaskan wave swept down the Pacific seaboard, wiping out a lot of the proto-Marina del Rey.

• In 1998 on the other side of the world an onshore earthquake caused an undersea canyon to slump down (like an avalanche) causing a localized 50 ft wave that wiped out 2200 people. But only on that island; other nearby islands were not affected.

Scientists investigating this unusual event realized for the first time that very localized seismic waves could occur. They also determined the geologic conditions in Santa Monica Bay are no different except for one. Local tsunami waves would bounce around or reflect around the bay like a giant pinball machine so waves could be even more damaging, hammering away for hours.

The City and County do not want to depress the fast-growing real estate prices in Venice by admitting these risks exist. Other newspapers do not want to offend real estate companies who advertise with them. And Playa Vista sure as hell wants this hard science buried so they can get federally subsidized FEMA flood insurance. So who wins and who loses?

Money is exchanged for public safety. I have personally pleaded with the California Coastal Commission to help Venice and MDR at least create evacuation routes to higher ground and to post signs on the beach so people know what to do when a temblor hits. All to no avail, they just sat there eating sandwiches and listening to their cell phone marching orders.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration supports Tsunami Ready Communities. Of all the prepared communities in the U.S. there is only one in California, Crescent City. Its waterfront was wiped out by the 1964 Alaskan event.

Venice should lead the way and be the first Southern California community to implement the recommendations of the federal government to prepare for Tsunami emergencies. And we must demand our elected officials not downplay the worst case.

If you live in a low-lying coastal area and a quake hits so hard you cannot stand, seek high ground and wait till the coast is clear, so to speak. Listen to radio reports.

If a large quake occurs while you are at the beach seek high ground. Do not watch the water recede far from shore. And do not walk to the sea to investigate. Follow evacuation signs if any are in place.

The danger here is not digital Hollywood waves, but real big, bad ass, thundering Venice Tsunamis. Just get outta their way.

TSUNAMI READY
http://wcatwc.gov/tsunamiready/tready.htm

LOTS OF TSUNAMI PICTURES
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/slideset/tsunamis

Posted: Sat - January 1, 2005 at 07:43 PM          

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